The political alliance between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga could potentially undermine Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s aspirations, despite enhancing his influence as the Mt Kenya kingpin. Gachagua, who aims to succeed Ruto in 2032 if re-elected in 2027, faces significant challenges amid Kenya’s rapidly shifting political landscape.
Potential for Ruto to Drop Gachagua
There are indications that President Ruto might consider dropping Gachagua even in the 2027 election, a possibility compounded by Raila Odinga’s increasing influence within the government. This scenario could isolate Gachagua further, adding to his existing hurdles.
Regional Infighting and Criticism
Gachagua is also grappling with internal dissent in his Mt Kenya base, where prominent figures are questioning his leadership and authority. A meeting involving critics from the region is reportedly in the works to discuss the direction for Mt Kenya.
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri, leader of The Service Party, has announced a retreat for politicians who support genuine unity in Mt Kenya. Kiunjuri, who has accused Gachagua of being a dictator, has stated that the retreat will be held in Naivasha or Mombasa to address regional issues and chart a new course.
Concerns Over Regional Division
There are concerns that these regional disputes could fragment Mt Kenya’s political unity ahead of the 2027 elections, potentially weakening its bargaining power and providing Ruto with more options for a running mate. Analysts argue that the Ruto-Raila deal could either strengthen Gachagua’s position or further complicate his political future.
Gachagua’s Political Standing
Political analyst Mwangi Muriuki warns that Gachagua’s position is precarious, with his authority not fully established among Mt Kenya’s political elite. The shadow of former President Uhuru Kenyatta still looms large in the region, with some politicians remaining loyal to him despite his retirement in 2022.
Gachagua has publicly committed to defending Kenyatta against political attacks in an effort to improve relations and reduce opposition within his base.
The Ruto-Raila Deal’s Impact on Gachagua’s Ambitions
Analysts like Muriithi Mutwiri suggest that while the Ruto-Raila alliance may help unify Mt Kenya behind Gachagua, it could also hinder his political ambitions. The partnership could allow Ruto to explore other running mate options from different regions, such as Western Kenya or Nyanza, potentially sidelining Gachagua.
Mutwiri notes that Ruto might form a political alliance with ODM that could significantly weaken Gachagua’s prospects.
Future Prospects and Strategic Options
Despite the challenges, Gachagua’s camp is exploring various strategies to enhance his political fortunes. There is speculation that if he is excluded from Ruto’s ticket in 2027, he might run for president on a different party’s ticket.
A Mount Kenya politician aligned with Gachagua has assured that they are considering all options to ensure a favorable outcome in the 2027 elections. This sentiment reflects the ongoing uncertainty and strategic maneuvering within Gachagua’s camp as they navigate the evolving political landscape.
Conclusion
Ruto and Gachagua’s relationship has reportedly deteriorated, with recent anti-government protests and internal dissent complicating their partnership. Gachagua has attributed the protests to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of key issues. The Ruto-Raila deal, therefore, represents a double-edged sword, with the potential to either consolidate or further challenge Gachagua’s political ambitions.
