Potential changes loom in Kenya’s political landscape as opposition leader Raila Odinga eyes the Africa Union (AU) Commission job, prompting considerations of beneficiaries and casualties ahead of the 2027 General Election. Odinga’s pursuit to succeed the current AU Commission chair, Moussa Faki, could lead to diminished influence in local politics, affecting politicians in his strongholds like Nyanza.
This move might provide a lifeline to ODM rebels, signaling a possible reconciliation between Odinga and President William Ruto, potentially easing hostilities between their political camps. Ruto stands to benefit significantly by sidelining Odinga from the 2027 equation, as Odinga remains a primary political challenger.
The AU job quest may trigger realignments within the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition, as politicians seek to position themselves with the potential flagbearer of the coalition. Additionally, succession politics within Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and his Luo Nyanza stronghold may come to the forefront.
While Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Democratic Action Party of Kenya’s Eugene Wamalwa have declared their 2027 presidential bids, Odinga’s possible exit could clear the path for Musyoka. However, it may also deny him crucial support in mobilizing Odinga’s strongholds, where Odinga is a seasoned political mobilizer.
Despite these dynamics, Odinga’s possible exit from active politics does not necessarily mean a complete withdrawal from leadership. Musyoka and other coalition members emphasize that Odinga will remain a leader, and the coalition will continue consulting him even if he steps back from local politics.
Political analysts highlight the need for Musyoka to step up his political activities to inherit Odinga’s support bases. However, Odinga could still choose to resign from the AU post and run for the presidency in 2027, potentially reshaping the political landscape.
The AU job pursuit introduces uncertainties, prompting discussions on its implications for Kenya’s political future. It emphasizes the importance of effective leadership transitions and calls for a careful examination of the broader impacts these potential changes might have on the country’s political dynamics.
