A recent comprehensive report reveals Russia’s strategic maneuvers in Africa, presenting governments with a “regime survival package” in exchange for access to vital natural resources. Internal documents obtained by the BBC outline Russia’s concerted efforts to alter mining laws in West Africa, with the ultimate goal of displacing Western companies from strategically significant areas. The report sheds light on Russia’s involvement in reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape through its mercenary group, Wagner, which underwent restructuring after a failed coup in June 2023.
The multibillion-dollar operations previously overseen by Wagner are now managed under the banner of the Russian “Expeditionary Corps,” led by the controversial figure accused of orchestrating the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal using the Novichok nerve agent. According to Jack Watling, a land warfare specialist at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), this marks a significant shift in Russia’s Africa policy, bringing the Russian state more overtly into the spotlight.
The restructuring decision, made shortly after the Wagner Group’s upheaval, involved placing Wagner’s Africa operations directly under the control of Russian military intelligence, the GRU. General Andrey Averyanov, head of Unit 29155 specializing in targeting killings and destabilizing foreign governments, assumed control. The aim, as outlined in the report, was to secure mineral rights from African governments in exchange for regime support, highlighting a shift in Wagner’s mission from destabilization to regime sustenance.
General Averyanov, accompanied by Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, embarked on a tour of former Wagner operations in Africa, engaging with leaders such as warlord Gen Khalifa Haftar in Libya and coup leader Ibrahim Traoré in Burkina Faso. These meetings emphasized the continuity of business deals post-Wagner, reassuring partners that Prigozhin’s demise did not signal the end of their collaborations.
In the West African states closely linked to Wagner, including Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, military takeovers have occurred in recent years. These nations, withdrawing from the regional bloc Ecowas, have established their own “Alliance of Sahel States.” The report suggests that Russia’s military presence in these countries is not merely pragmatic but also aligns with the juntas’ interests in maintaining power.
Wagner’s involvement in African nations, such as Mali, has sparked concerns about human rights abuses, with accusations of executions and civilian targeting. In exchange for its security assistance, Wagner sought access to valuable natural resources, following a standard Russian modus operandi of covering operational costs through parallel business activities, primarily in mining concessions.
Of particular geopolitical significance is Russia’s attempt to strategically displace Western control of critical minerals and resources, as evidenced by changes in mining codes in Mali and reported efforts in Niger. Control over West Africa’s uranium mines, crucial for France’s nuclear power, could expose Europe to potential Russian “energy blackmail.”
Despite a change in nomenclature to the “Expeditionary Corps,” Russia’s strategy in Africa appears consistent with Wagner’s objectives, albeit with greater overtness. The report underscores Russia’s efforts to exacerbate global crises, making the world less safe and weakening competitors in the ongoing global competition. The impact, though not immediately felt, poses a serious long-term threat to global stability.
